Opponent-adjusted EPA ratings for all 32 teams. NET is how they've played; FWD is what to expect from here. FWD A - FWD B + home edge = fair spread. Tap any team for details.
POWER TABLE
Points per game vs an average team. OFF/DEF/ST/NET: how they've played. FWD: forward strength, what to expect from here. Click a column to sort.
QBQBRest-of-season QB raises or lowers this team in the simulation and playoff odds (not in these ratings).
WHAT IS LUCK?
Actual wins minus the wins a team playing this well should have against the schedule it has faced. Plus means the record is ahead of the play: close wins, bounces going their way.
FRAUD+1.3 wins or more
SNAKEBIT-1.3 wins or less
LEGITabout right, .500 or better
JUST BADabout right, under .500
HEAD TO HEAD
Pick two teams and a venue.
NET
How a team has played: points per game better than an average team, from opponent-adjusted EPA.
FWD
Forward strength: what to expect from here. Trusts offense quickly, defense slowly (hot defenses cool off), and blends in last season's ratings early on. Fitted to predict the rest of the season in 2011-2025. FWD A - FWD B + the home team's home edge = fair spread. Home edges come from each team's real home and road results (about +1.4 to +2.4).
OFF/DEF
EPA per play on runs and passes, scaled to a 61-play game.
ST+PEN
Special teams plays and penalties, per game.
LUCK
Wins minus the wins a team this good should have against its schedule. FRAUD at +1.3 or more, SNAKEBIT at -1.3 or less.
PLAYOFF
10,000 simulated seasons with official tiebreakers, using FWD and each team's rest-of-season QB.
CUBE
How teams have played: right = better defense, back = better offense, higher = better net.
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